Do Democrats Really Have the Midterms in the Bag?
What’s In It For Me?
Democrats are increasingly behaving as though the midterms are already decided—and on paper, they have reason for confidence.
Trump’s approval ratings remain underwater, hovering in the low 40s. The president’s party has lost House seats in 26 of the last 28 midterm elections. Democrats swept the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races. They flipped state legislative seats in Iowa, Georgia, and deep-red districts across the country. They overperformed in special elections by an average of 13-14 points compared to 2024. Prediction markets put Democratic House odds at 79-81%. Generic ballots show leads ranging from +2 to +14.
The narrative writes itself: voters didn’t sign up for this. Mass deportations. ICE raids in American cities. Elon Musk running a shadow government. Congress refusing to check executive overreach. The courts being ignored. Democratic voters are energized, independents are alarmed, and even some Republicans are uneasy.
Democrats are certain the backlash is coming. History is on their side. The fundamentals look good. The question isn’t whether they’ll gain seats—it’s how many.
That confidence is premature.
There’s one problem with the narrative: this is not an election for President. Trump isn’t on the ballot. Voters aren’t choosing between Trump and a Democrat. They’re choosing whether to give Democrats the House—and what that actually means for their lives.
Will punishing the Republican Party make people’s lives better?
Why Did Voters Elect Trump?
Two reasons: the economy and the border.
The economy under Biden was marked by the worst inflation in forty years—peaking near 9%. Groceries got expensive. Rent got expensive. Everything got expensive. Voters remember who was president when that happened. They remember being told inflation was “transitory.” They remember being told the economy was strong while their paychecks bought less every month.
The border was open. Millions crossed. Images of overwhelmed border towns played on the news for years. Democrats talked about root causes and comprehensive reform while the problem got worse. Voters wanted it fixed. Democrats didn’t fix it.
So they elected Trump.
Now the border is closed. Deportations are happening—messy, controversial, but happening. Over 622,000 removals and 1.9 million self-deportations in 2025. Border encounters have plummeted. Some people think Trump is being too aggressive, too mean. But almost no one is saying he isn’t doing what he promised. (For more on the politics of deportation, see my earlier piece “The Deportation Con: How Trump’s Immigration Theater Obscures Obama’s Quiet Efficiency.”)
Affordability hasn’t improved much yet. But Trump can point at Biden and say: that’s who gave you 9% inflation. That wasn’t a tiny spike—that was the worst in a generation. And voters remember. The question of the economy is neutral at the moment. Affordability is a problem, but that more specific problem was not something Democrats or Republicans addressed during the last election.
What Happens If Democrats Take the House?
Everyone knows the answer, even if Democrats won’t say it out loud.
Investigations. Subpoenas. Hearings. Impeachment proceedings. Revenge for January 6th. Revenge for the second Trump administration. Revenge for Trump being elected twice despite how wonderful the Democrats are as human beings. Every committee becomes a weapon. Every hearing becomes a media event. The House turns into an opposition research operation with subpoena power.
Will any of this lower grocery prices? No. Will it reduce rent? No. Will it make childcare more affordable? No. Will it fix healthcare? No. Will it pass a single piece of legislation that becomes law? No—because Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, and that’s not changing in 2026.
A Democratic House doesn’t create divided government. It creates paralyzed government. The House can investigate, subpoena, and obstruct. It cannot pass a single bill that Trump will sign.
Voters have seen this movie. Democrats plus Trump already happened from 2019 to 2021. They remember what it produced: two impeachments that went nowhere, investigations that changed nothing, and a government that delivered nothing for ordinary people. The sequel won’t be any different.
In a word, we will have gridlock and nothing will get done.
So the question voters will ask themselves is simple: do I want two more years of that?
How Will Democrats Taking the House Help With Affordability?
It won’t.
This is the question Democrats cannot answer. If affordability is the issue—and everyone agrees it is—what exactly does a Democratic House deliver?
They can hold hearings about corporate greed. They can subpoena oil company executives. They can give speeches about price gouging. None of that puts money back in anyone’s pocket. And none of it becomes law—because Republicans hold the Senate 53-47.
Meanwhile, Trump is pulling every lever he can:
Tax cuts. Tax cuts historically cause short-term economic growth at the cost of more long-term debt. That’s the trade-off, and politicians have been making it for decades. The bill comes due eventually—but eventually is after the next election.
Credit card interest rate cap at 10%. Takes effect January 20. Banks are screaming about reduced credit access. Voters will hear: “my credit card rate is going down.” I’ve written about how we got to 20%+ credit card rates in the first place—it’s been a predatory racket for decades. Interesting sidebar: this problem sat there for fifty years and nobody in Washington cared until someone figured out it could tip an election. But that’s how things get done sometimes.
Blocking corporations from buying single-family homes. Young families competing against BlackRock for starter homes. Even if the policy is more symbolic than structural, it tells voters: I see the problem and I’m doing something about it.
Gas prices. Trump talks about them constantly because voters notice every time they fill up. He’s pushing domestic production, pressuring OPEC, and taking credit for anything that goes down.
Tariff adjustments. Walking back the ones that pinch too visibly while keeping the ones that sound tough on China.
None of these are structural reforms. They won’t fix underlying problems with healthcare costs, housing supply, or wage stagnation. But they’re visible. They’re tangible. And Trump will spend ten months making sure voters know about every single one.
What’s the Democratic counter-offer? Investigations. Subpoenas. Impeachment hearings.
If the answer to “how will this help me?” is “it won’t, but at least we’ll hold Trump accountable,” that’s not a winning message. That’s an admission.
For more on why neither party seems capable of actual governance, see my series: One Party Can’t Govern, One Shouldn’t, Part II, and Part 3.
What Else Trump Can Point To
By November, Trump will have a list of things he’s done—or at least tried to do. Voters don’t need perfection. They need to see effort and direction.
The Middle East. He’s actively trying to solve it. Whether he succeeds or not, he’s engaged. Gaza may have cooled. Iran's nuclear program? He took it out—something Obama gave them a pass on. The situation may not be resolved, but “things aren’t on fire” is often enough for voters tired of endless crisis.
Venezuela. He went to the source of a huge chunk of the immigration problem. Instead of just processing people at the border, he’s pressuring the countries they’re fleeing from. And he captured Maduro—that’s his Bin Laden patriotic feel good moment. Whether it changes anything on the ground is debatable, but it’s a headline, a win, something to point to. That’s a different approach than anything Biden or Obama tried.
Ukraine. It’s messy, and the outcome is uncertain. But Trump is actively working to end the war rather than just funding it indefinitely. Voters may not love the terms, but they’re exhausted by the conflict. “He ended it” may matter more than “he ended it well.”
Europe paying for defense. Trump has been hammering this for years, and it’s finally happening. NATO allies are increasing their contributions. America isn’t carrying the whole load anymore. This plays well with voters who think we’ve been footing the bill for too long.
China. He’s trying to rein them in. Tariffs, trade restrictions, technology controls. Is he doing a great job? Debatable. But he’s clearly trying, which is more than voters felt they got from the previous administration.
Tariffs and jobs. Trump claims the tariffs are bringing manufacturing back to America. Is it happening fast? No. But he can point to announcements, factory openings, and companies “reshoring” production. These things take time—and he’s got two more years to make the case. The narrative is set: America first, jobs coming home.
Yes, Trump is clumsy, mean, and abrasive. He doesn't think things through. He says things that make people cringe. But he's upending the status quo—and voters wanted that. They didn't elect him for polish. They elected him because the system wasn't working for them, and the people who ran it kept telling them everything was fine. Trump breaks things. Sometimes that's exactly what people want.
None of these are unqualified successes. But they’re all things Trump can point to and say: I’m working on it. I’m doing something. Compare that to the Democratic message: we’ll investigate him.
Which sounds like governing? Which sounds like a plan?
Why Not Let the Republicans Ride This One Out?
Here’s the question Democrats don’t want voters to ask: what’s the rush?
Trump already did most of the things that outrage his opponents. The deportations are happening. The executive orders are signed. The courts are being tested. Giving Democrats the House won’t undo any of it. It will just add two years of investigations on top of everything else—with nothing to show for it.
It’s two more years. That’s it. Trump can’t run again. Let the clock run out. Let voters see what unified Republican government actually delivers—or doesn’t. If it’s a disaster, Democrats will have their chance in 2028 with a clean sweep: White House, House, and Senate.
But if Democrats take the House now, they own the gridlock. They own two years of nothing happening while they chase investigations. And when voters are still struggling with affordability in 2028, Democrats won’t be able to say “we weren’t in charge.” They’ll have been in charge of the House—and they’ll have delivered nothing but noise.
Punishing Republicans for Trump will not lower grocery prices. It will not reduce rent. It will not make healthcare cheaper. It will not solve any of the problems voters actually care about.
That’s not a reason to vote. That’s a reason to stay home.
The ICE Drama
And then there’s immigration—where Democrats are actively proving they still don’t get it.
I’ve written about this in detail: What Is ICE Doing and Why Are People Getting Killed?
In cities like Minneapolis, Chicago, and Portland, Democratic politicians are encouraging citizens to follow ICE agents, block their vehicles, and interfere with arrests. People are getting killed. And Democrats are calling ICE agents Nazis, telling them to “get the f**k out,” and celebrating obstruction as resistance.
They don’t even understand what sanctuary policies actually are. Sanctuary means local cops stay out of federal immigration enforcement—which is constitutionally sound and has legitimate public safety rationales. It doesn’t mean civilians should insert themselves into active law enforcement operations. It doesn’t mean physically blocking federal agents. It doesn’t mean treating immigration enforcement as optional because you don’t like who won the election.
This is the same party that condemned Trump for refusing to accept the 2020 results. Now they’re encouraging interference with lawful federal action because they don’t like the 2024 results. The hypocrisy is obvious to everyone except Democrats.
Every time voters see footage of these confrontations, they’re not thinking “brave resistance.” They’re thinking “these people will never secure the border.” Democrats are reinforcing the exact perception that cost them 2024—and they can’t even see it.
The political point is simple: if Democrats are this vocal about opposing immigration enforcement now, what happens if they take the House? Does anyone believe the border won’t go to hell again?
And here’s something else to consider: Trump isn’t a moron. If the ICE drama is hurting him politically, he can dial it back before November. The big deportation push has already happened. The border is already closed. He can quietly reduce the visible confrontations, let things cool down, and point to the results without the nightly news footage. Democrats are betting that ICE enforcement will keep generating backlash for ten more months. That’s not a bet I’d take.
Voters remember 2021-2023. They remember the images. They’re not eager for a sequel.
Healthcare Is No Longer a Wedge Issue
For years, Democrats ran on a simple, effective message: Republicans are coming for your healthcare. Vote for us or lose your coverage.
That’s over.
Everyone knows the ACA was a bad idea that never worked as promised. Premiums kept rising. Choices narrowed. The savings never materialized. “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor” became a punchline. Democrats have been defending a flawed law for over a decade, and voters noticed.
Now Republicans are signaling they’ll preserve what works. The House just passed a bill to restore lapsed ACA subsidies with 17 Republican votes—defying leadership and showing bipartisan support for keeping people covered. If the Senate follows, the issue deflates entirely. Republicans aren’t the healthcare villains anymore. They’re the ones voting to extend the subsidies.
And remember: Republicans said they would deal with the extensions as soon as the government reopened. They did. Now the Democrats own the shutdown—they forced it, accomplished nothing, and Republicans delivered on their promise anyway.
And then there’s the fraud. The massive Medicaid fraud uncovered in Minnesota—hundreds of millions stolen from a program meant to help people—just reinforces what Republicans have been saying about social programs for years. Waste. Abuse. Lack of oversight. Democrats can’t run on “trust us with healthcare” when their states are hemorrhaging money to criminals.
Healthcare used to be a guaranteed winner for Democrats. Not anymore. They need a new argument—and they don’t have one.
The Bottom Line
Democrats are confident because the numbers look good and history is on their side. But numbers and history don’t answer the only question that matters: what changes for me?
If the answer is “investigations and impeachment hearings,” voters will do the math. And the math says: nothing I care about gets better.
Democrats can’t even agree on their own message. Party strategists want to talk about affordability—but they can’t deliver on it with a Republican Senate. Meanwhile, more than half the Democratic base wants to run on “Impeach Trump Now.” So the choice is between a practical message they can’t follow through on and an emotional message that doesn’t help anyone pay rent. Either way, voters lose.
Here’s what Democrats still haven’t reckoned with: more than half the country looked at Donald Trump—a man they know is crude, vindictive, dishonest, and chaotic—and decided he was still better than the alternative. That’s not a fluke. That’s not racism or ignorance or Fox News brainwashing. That’s a verdict on the Democratic Party.
The media loves to point out that college-educated voters go Democratic, as if that explains everything. The implication is clear: educated people vote blue, uneducated people vote red. But there are plenty of PhDs that have not a shred of common sense, and plenty of wise people who never set foot in a university. That condescension doesn’t win elections—it inflames people. As the saying goes: “I’m from Missouri. Show me.” Voters want results, not lectures about how they should have known better.
Voters chose a revolting person over Democrats. Twice now. And instead of asking why, Democrats are busy being offended that it happened. They’re certain voters didn’t sign up for this. They’re certain the backlash is coming. They’re certain that this time, finally, people will see what they see.
They’re headed for a big disappointment.
The midterms aren’t in the bag. And believing they are—while refusing to understand why Trump keeps winning—may be the surest way to lose them.