How an arms deal became normalized as a peace proposal: the Abraham Accords
Jared Kushner went to the Gulf states with a simple question: “What would it take for you to accept Israel?”
They gave him a shopping list. F-35s. Advanced missile defense systems. Intelligence sharing against Iran. Access to military technology the US had previously restricted to maintain Israel’s “qualitative military edge.”
The Trump administration brokered the sales. Trump marketed it as his big beautiful deal. Historic peace, they said. The Abraham Accords would bring a new era of regional stability.
It was an arms deal.
The “historic peace deal” set the stage and lit the fuse for the devastating Israeli-Gazan war.
The connections between the Abraham Accords and the October 7 Israeli-Gazan war are well documented and already covered in my Substack “Trump: A Man Who Never Finishes Anything”.
You Can’t Cheat An Honest Man
The Abraham Accords normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. These countries weren’t at war with Israel. No territorial disputes. No active conflicts. No violence to end. They had been quietly coordinating with Israel on Iran for years.
The Accords formalized cooperation that already existed and removed political barriers to US weapons sales. Arms sales for recognition. Recognition for security cooperation. That’s the deal.
But the Middle East had been an intractable disaster for decades. Every administration failed. Every peace process collapsed. Every initiative went nowhere.
And then Trump showed up doing his Professor Harold Hill routine - “You got trouble, right here in the Middle East, but I got the solution” - and the foreign policy establishment was desperate enough to buy it.
Who Got Thrown Under The Bus
The Palestinians weren’t consulted. They weren’t parties to the negotiation. They were explicitly told their concerns no longer mattered.
This is the history of this conflict from the very formation of Israel. You can read my many op-eds on this conflict.
Same old story. Palestinians cynically sold out by neighboring Arab governments and foreign superpowers, each only serving their own self-interests. Israelis and Palestinians left to take the consequences. The interests of the Palestinian people have never mattered.
For decades, Arab states had maintained that Palestinian statehood was a prerequisite for normalization with Israel. The Abraham Accords abandoned that position entirely. The Gulf states traded Palestinian leverage for American weapons.
This wasn’t incidental. It was the point. The Accords were a public declaration that Palestinian concerns are inconvenient and expensive, and regional powers have decided to ignore them.
But the foreign policy establishment needed their “progress” badly enough that they accepted this. Palestinian abandonment became reframed as diplomatic innovation.
The Self-Deception Became Permanent
Here’s what should have happened: People acknowledge the Accords were oversold, recognize them as transactional arms deals, and move on with realistic expectations.
Here’s what actually happened: The people who initially rationalized the Accords in 2020 - “well, it’s something, it’s a step forward” - now genuinely believe they were historic diplomatic breakthrough.
The suspension of disbelief became permanent. The self-deception hardened into fact.
Biden administration officials praise the Accords. Democrats talk about “building on the Abraham Accords framework.” Foreign policy experts cite them as proof that Middle East peace is achievable. Media coverage treats them as diplomatic success rather than weapons transactions.
The con was so successful that the people who got conned can’t even recognize they were conned.
The Data Tells A Different Story
From 1948 to 2023 - 75 years of wars, intifadas, operations, and conflicts - approximately 36,600 Palestinians were killed. From October 7, 2023 to present - roughly two years - between 64,000 and 70,000 Palestinians have been killed.
More Palestinians died in two years following the Abraham Accords than died in the previous three-quarters of a century combined. The bloodiest single day in the history of Israel.
The Accords held up fine during the Gaza war. Of course they did. They were never about Palestinian rights.
Both Parties and the International Community Need The Lie
Republicans and Democrats now have shared investment in maintaining the fiction.
Trump claims credit for historic peace breakthrough. Biden built on the framework and continued the arms sales. Neither can admit the “success” was imaginary without admitting their Middle East policy is built on weapons transactions and Palestinian abandonment.
The lie protects itself. Once false framing becomes standard political language, challenging it sounds unreasonable. You’re “denying historic progress.” You’re “dismissing diplomatic achievement.”
The international consensus around the Accords isn’t evidence they were real. It’s evidence that the global foreign policy establishment is stuck maintaining a con they were desperate enough to buy.
But you can’t cheat an honest man.