How to Conquer Greenland Without Firing a Shot
The Crimea Playbook for the Arctic
Earlier articles:
Everyone’s worked up about Trump’s Greenland comments. The usual objections: international law, NATO solidarity, the sanctity of Danish sovereignty.
Russia under Boris Yeltsin wrote this playbook in 1997. Under the 1997 agreement for the Black Sea Fleet, Russia was permitted to station up to 25,000 military personnel in Crimea.
Russia had its own reasons for deciding to invade Crimea in Ukraine under Vladimir Putin in 2014. This piece does not discuss any of that, just the mechanics of how it was done.
When they decided to invade, they were already there and had been there for almost 20 years. It was essentially overnight with no shots fired.
The Framework Already Exists
The United States doesn’t just have a military presence in Greenland — it has nearly unlimited ability to establish bases there. The 1951 Defense Agreement, updated over the decades, gives the U.S. broad authority to build and operate facilities for collective defense. Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) has been operational since then, and it’s our northernmost military installation, critical for missile warning systems and space surveillance.
We’re already there. Legally. With Danish permission. And the agreement doesn’t cap how much we can expand.
Now, the current presence is relatively modest — a few hundred personnel, mostly focused on radar systems and satellite tracking. But the legal framework allows for far more. Missions can expand. Facilities can multiply. Arctic security concerns are very real and very legitimate — and every new installation is entirely above board.
The Long Game
Here’s how you do this without anyone being able to point to a single illegal act:
Step One: Expand the mission.
Arctic security is genuinely important. Russia is militarizing the Arctic. China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state.” Climate change is opening shipping routes that didn’t exist twenty years ago. There are entirely legitimate reasons to increase American military presence in Greenland.
So you do that. More personnel. More facilities. Training exercises. The 1951 agreement already gives us the authority — we just start using it. All above board. All legal. No negotiation required.
Step Two: Integrate economically.
Greenland has maybe 56,000 people and an economy that runs on fishing and a $600 million annual subsidy from Denmark. That’s it. Ninety percent of exports are shrimp and halibut. The mineral wealth everyone talks about — rare earths, uranium, zinc — sits in the ground untouched.
Negotiating mineral agreements would be trivially easy. Nobody there is doing much of anything except fishing. The United States has an economy of $28 trillion. You want to make friends in Greenland? It’s not hard. Show up with investment capital and actual development plans. Build infrastructure. Create jobs that aren’t gutting fish. Fund education programs that bring young Greenlanders to American universities.
None of this is colonial — it’s just being a good neighbor. A very generous neighbor with deep pockets and an interest in rare earths.
And at some point, the locals might even want to be American citizens.
Step Three: Wait.
This is the part Americans are traditionally terrible at. We want results now. We want to declare victory and go home. But the Crimea playbook requires patience.
You build your presence. You deepen your relationships. You make yourself indispensable. And then you wait.
Here’s the crucial part that makes this strategy so elegant: you might never have to do anything.
If no threat to your position ever materializes — if Denmark remains a reliable ally, if Greenland remains content with the arrangement, if no rival power makes a move — then you simply... continue. Status quo. You’re a welcome guest with an expanding footprint, and everyone’s happy. No international incident. No condemnation. No crisis.
You only act if something changes. Maybe it’s a Danish political crisis. Maybe it’s a Greenlandic independence movement that suddenly finds itself courting Chinese investment. Maybe it’s a genuine Arctic security emergency. Maybe Denmark elects a government that starts making noises about renegotiating your basing rights. Maybe they tell you to leave.
That’s when you don’t.
The Bottom Line
The beauty of the playbook is that the decision about whether to take control isn’t made by you. It’s made by whoever threatens to take it away from you. You’re just... responding to circumstances. Protecting your interests. What choice did you have?
The worldview at the moment is that the US can get all it wants without making Greenland a part of the US — especially not by force.
And if all of this remains true? You never have to do anything against the rules-based order.
There is no downside to doing things this way. There is considerable downside to being a bully.
The Cranky Old Guy writes about politics, economics, and uncomfortable truths at mecrankyoldguy.com