Just look at the evidence.
For months the experts told us how this would end. The war was a quagmire. Gas prices were unsustainable. The midterms were closing in. A cornered president, out of options, would soon grab any exit Tehran offered.
They were right. It’s time we admitted it. Let’s review just how desperate Donald Trump has become.
The Offer He Couldn’t Refuse
Last week, on the sidelines of the United Nations, Iran offered a way out. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz in seven days. In exchange, the United States would simply end the blockade, unfreeze billions in Iranian assets, lift sanctions, and stop all hostilities in Iran and Lebanon.
A reasonable package. A lifeline for a drowning man.
Trump, desperate, said no. Iran only wants a deal, he explained, because it’s “losing so badly.” Classic projection.
Then Axios reported he had privately offered sanctions relief. Surely this was the cave. Trump, desperate, denied it.
The Blockade That Broke Him
Consider the pressure he’s under. Since the blockade was reinstated in July, not a single Iranian crude cargo has made it through. Iran’s oil stored at sea has fallen from about 90 million barrels to about 15 million, and analysts expect it to run out by mid-October.
Meanwhile, everyone else’s oil is moving. Gulf exports are back near 80 percent of prewar levels, the highest since the war began. The only tankers stuck in the Gulf are Iran’s.
Faced with this, Trump did what any panicking man would do. He left the blockade exactly where it was.
Meanwhile, the Iranian rial hit 2.5 million to the dollar. The Iranian government is warning its own northern provinces about fuel shortages this winter. Gas prices there have doubled in a month.
Clearly signs of American weakness.
The Clock
Iran’s president went on NBC to say Tehran wants a deal before the November 3 midterms.
This is the pressure the experts warned about. Iran can’t wait for the election. And Trump, terrified, has only 28 more months in office to wait out Iran.
The polls say Republicans may lose the House. A Democratic House would hold hearings. It might pass resolutions. It could not end the blockade without veto-proof majorities in both chambers, which exist nowhere outside a cable-news panel.
Tehran’s foreign minister says Iran is ready for a “doomsday war.” Iran’s oil is ready for mid-October.
The Cheering Section
Every war has a home front. Iran’s turned out to be surprisingly well staffed, much of it in Manhattan and Washington.
Every American casualty was a turning point. Every gas-price spike was the beginning of the end. Every anonymous official with a grievance became a front-page source. Somehow the rial’s collapse never quite made the cut. Neither did the eleven straight weeks without an Iranian tanker getting out.
We’ve seen this before. When inflation hit 9 percent during Biden, it was transitory, then Putin’s fault, then a vibe. When gas went up under Trump, it got the first five minutes of every newscast and the whole episode of Washington Week and Meet the Press.
The anonymous sources knew everything that the administration was refusing to admit.
The Off-Ramp
So yes, the experts were right. Someone in this war is desperate for an off-ramp. Someone is burning through reserves, pitching peace plans at the UN, sending proxies after Saudi pipelines and Red Sea shipping, and praying for an American election to rescue them.
Somewhere, a cable-news panel is trying to say “we were wrong.” Like the Fonz on Happy Days, so far they’ve gotten as far as “we were wrrr.”