The Ukraine Decision: A Five-Minute Case for European Leaders
What we're asking for, what it costs, what we get
The Choice We Face
After three years, the war has become a contest of industrial endurance. Russia bets on our fatigue. Ukraine needs systematic support, not sporadic aid packages. We can end this bet permanently with a predictable, measurable plan.
What We're Proposing
A 36-month industrial program to make Ukrainian victory inevitable through attrition:
Make Russian offensives fail automatically
Keep Ukraine's economy and energy online
Build Ukraine's domestic defense capacity
Create framework contracts that outlast election cycles
Detailed implementation framework, metrics, and governance structures are provided in the accompanying White Paper Plan for Ukrainian Victory in a War of Attrition.
What It Costs
€200 per European per year. Less than we spend individually on coffee.
For the EU collectively: €70-90 billion annually—0.4% of our GDP. Compare this to:
2% NATO spending target = €350 billion/year
EU agricultural subsidies = €60 billion/year
What we'll pay if Ukraine fails and Russia moves west
What We Get
For Ukraine:
95% grid uptime despite Russian strikes
Domestic production of 30% of key weapons by 2027
EU membership track with functioning institutions
Black Sea grain exports flowing normally
For Europe:
400,000 new defense manufacturing jobs
Industrial capacity that deters China and Russia permanently
Proof that democracies can outlast dictatorships
Ukraine as a €200 billion economy integrated into EU markets
For the World:
Grain flowing to Africa and Asia
Demonstration that conquest doesn't pay
NATO Article 5 never tested because deterrence works
Why This Works
Russia's theory of victory requires our collapse. Remove that hope through predictable, systematic support, and Moscow faces a choice: endless bleeding or negotiated withdrawal.
Physics beats politics: Air defense systems stop missiles regardless of Putin's speeches. Artillery parity prevents breakthroughs regardless of Russian mobilization. Industrial capacity compounds monthly while their equipment degrades.
We're not betting on Putin becoming reasonable—we're making unreasonable behavior unsustainable.
The Alternative
If we don't do this systematically, we'll pay far more later:
Moldova falls (€50B reconstruction)
Baltic states under direct threat (€200B+ new deployments)
Taiwan question becomes urgent (global economic disruption)
China concludes the West can't sustain industrial competition
The Ask
Three decisions:
Pass 36-month funding legislation with quarterly auto-disbursement to Ukraine
Create EU-Ukraine Defense Production Board with binding procurement commitments
Activate European Defense Industrial Strategy with subsidies for ammunition, air defense, and shipbuilding
Timeline: Legislation by October 2025, first deliveries by January 2026, full European industrial ramp-up through 2026.
Bottom Line
This isn't charity—it's the cheapest way to secure Europe.
For €200 per person per year, we turn Ukraine into a 40-million-person NATO-standard military on Russia's border, rebuild European defense manufacturing, and prove democracies can win industrial competitions.
The choice is: pay this bill now, systematically, or pay a much larger bill later, after Russia moves west and China moves east.
The cost of this plan is manageable. The cost of not doing it is catastrophic.
Ready for implementation. What Europe needs now is not more analysis, but political decision-making.