I read every day that Mark Carney is the grown-up in the room. The steady hand. The adult the free world has been waiting for while the Americans throw tantrums. Fine. I’m convinced. The job is open, and there’s a live test case at the mouth of the Red Sea.
What Happened
In the past few weeks the Houthis took the port of Mocha, then Perim Island, the rock that splits Bab el-Mandeb into two shipping lanes. They announced a blockade of Saudi oil headed to Asia. Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline after drone strikes, and this week Houthi missiles were fired at Yanbu, the Red Sea port where that pipeline’s oil gets loaded.
The President of the United States, standing in Dublin, said the Houthis had called him, didn’t want to fight America, were letting most ships through, and had a problem with only “one country.” His Vice President said the administration was monitoring the situation. Translation: not our strait, not our oil, not our war.
Whose Oil Is It?
This is the serious part, and it’s simple. They need the oil. We don’t.
The United States is a net petroleum exporter. When a Saudi tanker is threatened, Americans feel it at the pump because oil is one global market, but no American refinery goes dry. Texas and North Dakota actually make money.
Now look at who does go dry. Japan imports nearly all its crude, overwhelmingly from the Middle East. South Korea, India and China are in the same boat, literally. Saudi oil loaded at Yanbu goes one of two ways: south through Bab el-Mandeb to Asia, or north through Suez to Europe. With Hormuz already squeezed by the Iran war, Yanbu is the bypass. The Houthis are now standing on the bypass.
For seventy years, the U.S. Navy guaranteed that oil reached Tokyo, Seoul, Rotterdam and Marseille, and the countries receiving it never bore the real cost. They hosted some bases and paid some bills, but the warships, the risk and the casualties were American. Their most reliable contribution was the occasional lecture about American arrogance. That arrangement just paused. The people who need the oil are now the people who have to protect it.
And let’s remember whose war this is. Saudi Arabia went to war with the Houthis in 2015 and fought them for seven years, with American intelligence, fuel and munitions, without dislodging them. The fight began as Riyadh’s, and the oil at stake mostly flows to Asia and Europe. America helping is reasonable. America doing it alone is not.
Enter the Leader of the Free World
Canada’s navy has twelve Halifax-class frigates, commissioned in the 1990s. It has no destroyers; the last one was retired in 2017. The replacements are due in the 2030s. Its four submarines spend most of their lives in refit. When the U.S. assembled Operation Prosperity Guardian against the Houthis in 2023, Canada contributed a handful of staff officers. Not ships. Officers.
In fairness, Carney says Canada finally hit NATO’s 2 percent target this year, and he signed on to 5 percent by 2035. Good. The first of Canada’s new submarines could arrive by 2034. But the Houthis are working on a timetable of weeks, and 2035 is a long way from Mocha.
I propose the following campaign plan. Phase one: a strongly worded communiqué. Phase two: a coalition summit in Ottawa. Phase three: a second communiqué, more strongly worded. Phase four: the frigates arrive, sometime after the new destroyers enter service.
Four days after the Houthis seized Bab el-Mandeb, Europe offered Canada a brand-new status as the EU’s first “associate member,” complete with a standing ovation and kisses on both cheeks. Associate membership doesn’t exist in the EU treaties, but neither does a Canadian destroyer, so it’s a good match. Here’s a welcome gift idea: Europe and its new associate could keep open the sea lane that carries Europe’s oil. Everyone has something to say about the Americans. Here’s a chance to say it with ships.
And Carney has had plenty to say. In March 2025 he declared the United States “no longer a reliable partner” and said the old relationship of tight security and military cooperation was over. This spring he told Canadians that “hope isn’t a plan.” Last month, after trade talks collapsed, he said America’s signature is sometimes “written in pencil.” Fine. Take him at his word. If America is unreliable, this is the moment for the reliable partners to show up. Hope isn’t a plan in the Red Sea either.
The Coalition Assembles
Canada won’t be alone. France is ready: the Foreign Legion is the stuff of legend, and France already keeps its largest African garrison in Djibouti, a few hours’ sail from Perim Island. They could practically commute.
Canada’s new friend is nearby too. Having concluded that America is no longer a reliable partner, Ottawa cut a deal with a more dependable one: Beijing. Chinese electric cars in, Canadian canola back to China. Surely a reliable partner will help out. Conveniently, China’s only overseas military base is also in Djibouti, right at the mouth of the strait. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has been sitting there since 2017, watching the world’s shipping go by.
So picture it: a Canadian frigate, a Legion detachment and a Chinese naval base, all within sight of Bab el-Mandeb, united in defense of the rules-based order.
Even Greenland could send a kayak flotilla. Its people invented the kayak, which has a longer record of reliable service at sea than Denmark’s last frigate in the Red Sea.
To be fair, Europe can deploy in a hurry when it wants to. In January, when Trump threatened to take Greenland, Europe rushed troops there: France sent 15 soldiers, Germany a 13-person reconnaissance team, Sweden three officers, Norway two and Britain one. Europe will send soldiers to defend Greenland from America.
The Whole Bench
Look at who’s available. Britain, France and Italy have aircraft carriers. Japan, India, South Korea and China have serious navies and even more serious exposure, since it’s their oil. Turkey has NATO’s second-largest army and sells drones to half the world; a drone superpower should be able to handle a drone militia.
Saudi Arabia has hundreds of modern combat jets. The UAE has actually done this before: its forces and allies took Mocha from the Houthis in 2017 and built a base on Perim Island. The ground the Houthis just seized is ground the Emiratis once held. Egypt loses Suez Canal revenue every week the Red Sea stays dangerous; it has the most direct financial stake of anyone.
And don’t count on Israel to do the work either. Israel is one of the few countries that has actually bombed the Houthis, hitting Hodeidah port and Sanaa airport more than once. Europe’s thanks: condemnations, arms embargoes, and on September 8, as the Houthis closed in on the strait, a joint British, French and Canadian plan to sanction Israeli settlements. Mark Carney signed it. You can’t sanction the one country that shoots at the Houthis and then expect it to clear your shipping lane.
Combined, without the U.S. and Israel, they should be able to handle a ragtag army in Yemen.
The First Volunteer
As I was writing this, one stepped forward, and it wasn’t Canada. France announced it will send soldiers, radars and air defenses to protect Yanbu, hours after Houthi missiles were fired at it. Credit where due. But Macron was explicit: this is to protect a site, not to engage in the conflict. Britain has offered the Saudis aerial refueling. France will guard the pump. The strait stays in Houthi hands.
What to Watch
There’s a real case that Trump is wrong. Higher global oil prices reach American pumps six weeks before the midterms. Iran gains leverage by having proxies at both chokepoints. And I’m sure Canada’s reliable new partner, China, will come to the rescue.
But strip away the satire and this is Trump’s point, and it’s a fair one: help out. It’s your oil, your trade, your sea lane. Europe has time for standing ovations and new membership categories. Canada has time to lecture Washington and cut deals with Beijing. Nobody has time to send a warship to the one strait that feeds them. The only way the free world grows up is if its designated adult stops doing its homework for it.
I’m from Missouri, the Show-Me State. Pledges for 2035 don’t impress me. The countries that will actually spend the money are the ones on Russia’s doorstep: Poland, the Baltics, the Nordics, and Germany, which changed its constitution to do it. The rest signed up for 5 percent the way people sign up for a gym in January. Europe’s voters have already made their choice. Try telling a French retiree his pension is going to frigates, an Italian his August vacation is going to munitions, or a Briton that NHS money is going to fighter jets. Five percent on defense happens when pigs fly, and the pigs are not in the budget either. Show me the signed shipbuilding contracts, the new munitions lines, the frigates on station at Bab el-Mandeb. Europe and Canada have spent a year telling us America can’t be relied on. The Red Sea is where they get to show us what can.
Prime Minister, the Houthis are on line one.