Picture Trump standing beside Putin in Helsinki, publicly brushing off his own intelligence agencies. The easy explanation—loved by pundits—is that Putin manipulated him through some masterful spy operation. John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, repeatedly claims Putin "knows how to manipulate" Trump and sees him as "an easy mark."
But this gives Putin supernatural powers he doesn't possess and makes Trump look like a fool. He isn't being played. He's paying back.
The Debt Ledger
Trump operates by a debt ledger. Imagine a giant balance sheet in his head - one side marked "I Owe Him," the other "He Owes Me." Every person, country, or institution belongs there, and the accounts must be settled. To Trump, politics is personal accounting. Every relationship is a running tab, and debts must be settled before the books close. This isn't just about Russia - it's Trump's fundamental operating system, his MO across every relationship and decision.
It's not that Putin tricks him - it's that Putin and his "friends" helped him, substantially, when others wouldn't. They lent him money and bought his properties when American and European banks turned him away. As Trump's own son admitted in 2008: "Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia."
When it comes to Russia versus the U.S. and Europe, his business history puts them on opposite sides of the ledger—and Russia gets the favorable entry.
A Nuanced Look at the Ledger
It's not conceivable to many people that he would shirk his duty to his country as president to settle personal debts, but that's exactly what the debt ledger demands. With minor deeds like helping Steve Bannon or Roger Stone, he's consciously paying back debts - just transactional cleanup to him.
But when it comes to siding with Russia against the USA and Europe, he needs to maintain his self-image of who he is. He's not able to process that level of villainy. The greater the moral betrayal, the thicker the camouflage he needs. The lies aren't just to us—they're to himself.
The Ukraine Calculation
But here's Trump's psychological bind: he genuinely believes he's a patriotic president doing what's best for America. He can't admit to himself that he's making decisions in favor of a foreign adversary, Russia, based on personal debt settlement for the adversary and against the US and our allies (especially Europe) because their financial institutions are on the wrong side of the ledger.
So he adopts Putin's narratives wholesale - not because they're particularly clever, but because they provide ready-made justification for what he already wants to do. When Putin frames NATO expansion as American aggression, Trump doesn't need to be convinced. He needs the story, and Putin conveniently provides one that sounds like legitimate foreign policy rather than personal payback.
This explains why breaking Trump's pro-Russia stance has been, and may be, extraordinarily difficult, even as the war in Ukraine continues. I owe Putin; Zelensky owes me and so does USA and Europe for how their banks treated me. The debt ledger couldn't be clearer.
It's not impossible for Trump to ultimately do the right thing, but it's very hard.
The Psychological Difference
There's one way Trump's debt-based logic differs from how mob bosses operate: bosses like John Gotti owned who they were. Gotti never pretended to be anything else.
Trump can't bear to see himself as one. His self-image is built on being a patriot, a "winner," and a great moral leader - he even craves a Nobel Peace Prize. But he's just protecting his self-image. In reality, Trump is a mob boss. In his fantasy world, he's a great moral leader. The debt ledger operates in reality while the justifications live in fantasy.
Trump isn't consciously choosing evil - he's constructed elaborate justifications so he can see debt-driven decisions as righteous acts of patriotism.
Trump's behavior follows the debt ledger every time. The stories he tells about it — whether it's fighting the deep state, defending freedom, or standing up to NATO — are there so he can keep seeing himself as the good guy while operating like a criminal boss. The real driver is debt settlement. The rest is window dressing.
Once you see the ledger at work, the contradictions disappear and the next move becomes obvious. Everything else—polls, policies, speeches—is camouflage.