Trump’s Ukraine Math Is Simpler Than They Want You To Believe
I’ve written extensively over the last year about the war in Ukraine and Trump. You can go through my Substack if you are curious about all the details.
The foreign policy establishment is having another meltdown. Trump is selling out Ukraine and NATO. Trump is handing Putin a victory. Trump is signaling weakness to China. Taiwan is next.
None of that is true. And the people saying it have been wrong about everything for fifty years.
He’s Not Helping Ukraine. He’s Not Helping Russia Either.
Let me be clear about something first, because I’ve written about this many times: Trump has no intention of helping Ukraine. Beyond low-key gestures — sharing intelligence that costs us nothing and selling weapons at a profit — he’s not in this fight on Ukraine’s behalf. If you’re waiting for an American cavalry charge, stop waiting.
But here’s what the establishment narrative completely ignores: he’s not helping Russia win either. And that would be trivially easy to do. Cut intelligence sharing. Gut sanctions. Block European arms transfers. Recognize Russian territorial claims. He hasn’t done any of it.
Trump wants the war to end. Russia won’t give an inch. He asks Ukraine to give Russia the land it wants — and whatever else will make them happy. Ukraine refuses. He moves on. Call that pressure if you want — but only if you expected him to help Ukraine win in the first place.
The U.S. has been policing the whole planet since World War II. The least Europe can do is help Ukraine — a country that bore an enormous share of defeating Germany in World War II. The urgency Europe has shown Ukraine so far has been laughable. They’ve been waiting for the American cavalry charge out of selfishness and a lack of gratitude.
Clean Your Own Room
Trump made one decision — a single, clean, transactional decision — and everything else flows from it. He decided Ukraine is Europe’s problem.
His message to Europe: clean your own room. I’m not your mother.
Once you accept that framing, everything that looks chaotic suddenly looks logical. If Europe owns this war, there’s no reason for America to be Russia’s enemy. Poisoning the relationship with Moscow buys you nothing. You stay useful as the eventual dealmaker, keep a back channel open.
Think about what that actually means for Russia. Putin spent twenty years trying to split America from Europe. Instead he got a rearmed, motivated, increasingly unified European military bloc as his direct adversary — in addition to America, which would jump in if push came to shove.
Europe is spending money it hasn’t spent in two generations. Germany blew up its own constitutional debt brake. Poland is now the top NATO defense spender. Thirty years of American pleading couldn’t accomplish that. Trump accomplished it by being willing to leave.
There’s a companion narrative the same people are pushing: Trump is destroying NATO, fracturing the Western alliance, handing Russia a historic victory. NATO has added two members since the war started. Every ally now exceeds the old spending target. NATO just committed to 5% of GDP by 2035. If Putin considers this to be NATO’s destruction, he must be very confused.
The China Narrative Is Invented
The media and the Harvard-credentialed foreign policy class are telling you that American restraint in Ukraine signals weakness to Beijing and that Taiwan is now vulnerable.
This is not analysis. This is assertion presented as a fact.
Show me the evidence that Chinese military planners evaluate Taiwan invasion risk based on American posture in Eastern Europe. You can’t, because it doesn’t exist. It’s a hypothesis — a debatable, unproven hypothesis — being presented as established geopolitical law.
Meanwhile in the actual world: the U.S. is at war with Iran and has taken action against Nicaragua. China gets its discount oil from those regions and they act as destabilizing proxies for it. That’s what signals strength or weakness to Beijing — not what happens in Eastern Europe. The U.S. has run maximum pressure trade warfare against China itself — tariffs that under any prior administration would have been called an act of economic aggression. The 7th Fleet is still in the Pacific. AUKUS is moving forward. Perceived critical AI technology is being restricted.
That is not a country signaling that it will be weak on China’s aggression.
On Being Wrong About Everything
A degree from the right school doesn’t make you smart. It makes you credentialed. The difference matters enormously when you’ve been wrong about everything for fifty years and still get invited back on Meet the Press.
We’re talking about the diplomats, foreign policy advisors, and think tank class who have managed American foreign policy for the last fifty years. The people actually in charge. The ones with the titles, the fellowships, the access, and the track record.
Here are a few. The list is far from exhaustive. I have written about much of this sordid history extensively in my Substack.
These are the same people who invented the domino theory and used it to justify the Vietnam War. Vietnam fell. Southeast Asia did not. The countries that fell were French colonies throwing off a colonial structure. The Harvard crowd couldn’t tell the difference between communism spreading and colonialism collapsing.
Who invaded Iraq, disbanded its army, and created the vacuum that became ISIS.
Who spent thirty years trying to integrate Russia into the Western order and got this war instead.
Who negotiated the Iran deal, handed them billions, and watched the money fund long-range rockets, terrorist proxies, and a nuclear program that never actually stopped.
The one thing they got right — the Soviet threat — required no analysis whatsoever. The Russians were literally occupying half of Europe. You didn’t need a PhD to notice. If you understand that water is wet, you could have figured that out.
I’m sure they got something else right at some point. Nothing comes to mind.
I’ve written at length about how this class keeps underestimating Trump. I’m done explaining it. Read the Substack.
The Bottom Line
Trump’s Ukraine math isn’t complicated. He reassigned the account to Europe. Given that, antagonizing Russia is pointless. Europe carrying its own weight is more durable than a dependent Europe propped up by American guarantees indefinitely.
What’s not worth debating is the media narrative that Trump is Putin’s puppet, that he’s signaling weakness to China, or that the people who’ve been wrong about everything are suddenly right this time.
They aren’t.