On September 13, at his golf resort in Ireland, President Trump told reporters: “Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia.”
That same day, Ukraine hit a refinery in Krasnodar.
Today, after Zelensky criticized a US deal to buy Russian diesel, Trump went further: “It’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.”
The problem he can’t fix
Diesel averages $6.28 a gallon. A year ago it was $3.68. The Iran war, which started in February, did most of that. The midterms are November 3. I covered how the Kyiv peace push tracks the GOP’s fuel-price problem in Why the Sudden New Interest in Ending the War in Ukraine?
Nothing will change diesel prices before the midterms. Cargoes take weeks to load, ship, and distribute. The Strait of Hormuz isn’t going to reopen on a campaign schedule.
When you can’t fix a problem, you do two things. You show you’re doing something. And you find someone to blame.
Move one: do something
On Friday, Trump announced a deal with Russia. The US suspends sanctions on Russian diesel exports until April 7. Russia releases 300,000 tonnes now and 500,000 in November, followed by another million, then 3 million more, “based on the condition of their diesel refineries.”
Run the numbers. At about 7.45 barrels to the tonne, the first tranche is roughly 2.2 million barrels. The US consumes about 3.7 million barrels of distillate a day, so that’s about 14 hours of American demand. The full 4.8 million tonnes is under ten days of it, spread over months and shared with the “global marketplace.” Measured against that global market, Forbes puts the full amount at less than eight days of seaborne diesel trade.
The US also exports around 1.5 million barrels of distillate a day. We ship the first Russian tranche’s worth abroad every day and a half.
And sanctions aren’t Russia’s problem. Sanctioned crude still sells. It goes to China at a discount.
Russia’s problem is that it has no refined products, either to use itself or to sell. Diesel output is down about 30%, according to the IEA. Russia banned its own diesel exports in July. You can’t sell what your refineries can’t make.
Then there are the tankers. Ukraine’s drone forces say they’ve hit 300 shadow-fleet tankers since July 6. That is Kyiv’s count, not independently verified. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated that Russia’s seaborne export volume fell 21% in August and revenue fell 32%.
Suspending sanctions on Russian diesel is like lifting the speed limit on a car with no engine. That’s why the deal is “based on the condition of their diesel refineries.” Ukraine’s drones set that condition.
It isn’t a fix. It’s a headline.
Move two: blame someone
Zelensky is the villain. He’s the one “knocking out diesel fuel.” He “wants to make problems for the world.” He “could have made many deals and for some reason, he never does.” And now it’s time for a new one.
The message to the voter at the pump: prices are high because a foreign leader won’t listen, and I’m the one taking him to task.
No deadline, no condition, and no stated consequence is attached to Kyiv. Ukraine kept striking. That’s fine, because the audience was never Kyiv.
The catch
The deal’s later tranches depend on the “condition” of Russian refineries. Trump has tied his own headline to Ukrainian drones. If November comes up short, Moscow has its excuse, and Trump has his villain.
The rhetoric will probably fade after November 3. The sanctions suspension runs until April 7.
Honest caveats
The bark has teeth available. US intelligence has helped Ukraine plan its refinery strikes. Quietly throttling that support would need no announcement. If refinery hits fall off in October with no explanation, that’s what it looks like.
My opinion: Kyiv’s smart move is to lay off refineries for three weeks. Russian diesel output is already down about 30%, according to the IEA. A short pause costs Ukraine little and takes away the villain.
Personally, I also think Zelensky is in on the show. As I wrote in If You Can Understand Pro Wrestling, You Can Understand Trumpism, the heel is in on it.
Look at what he does, not what he says. He calls the deal a gift to Putin. He keeps hitting refineries. He takes the meeting in New York and talks up “diplomatic momentum.” At last report, US intelligence sharing was back at its peak.
Playing Trump’s villain costs Zelensky nothing at home. It may even help.
Who he’s talking to
So who is he talking to? Not Zelensky.
He is talking to everyone who is mad that diesel is expensive.