The conventional wisdom is dangerously wrong. Most analysts assume Putin will take what he can now, consolidate for a few years, then attack again when Russia is stronger. This fundamentally misunderstands Putin's strategic position. He will not pause for years—he will not pause for even one day—because time works entirely against him.
The Conventional Wisdom Is Backwards
The standard analysis goes like this: Putin grabs territory, accepts a ceasefire, rebuilds his military for a few years, then launches the next phase of conquest from a position of greater strength. This scenario drives every "realistic" settlement proposal in Western capitals.
Analysts point to Russia's past pattern:
Pause after Moldova invasion 1992
Pause after Georgia in 2008
Pause after Crimea in 2014
Pause after initial Donbas gains
Each time, Russia consolidated territorial gains while opponents remained static. This historical pattern creates the expectation that Putin will follow the same playbook again.
But this analysis misses the fundamental change: in the past, Europe and Ukraine did not arm during Russian pauses. Ukraine remained militarily weak. European defense spending stayed flat. NATO arsenals gathered dust. It was safe for Russia to wait because opponents used peacetime for politics, not preparation.
Now Europe and Ukraine are arming at wartime pace. Ukraine is building indigenous missile and drone production. European defense budgets are surging. NATO is expanding and rearming. The strategic environment that made past pauses advantageous for Russia no longer exists.
Putin cannot wait 2-3 years because waiting now means facing enemies who will use that time to build capabilities that make Russian victory impossible.
Why Security Guarantees Are Worthless Now
The fatal flaw in every settlement proposal is the assumption that security guarantees would deter Putin from immediate resumption of hostilities. Security guarantees are meaningless now precisely when they would need to work.
Europe is already giving Ukraine all the weapons they have. Artillery shell production cannot keep pace with Ukrainian consumption. Advanced systems are transferred as fast as they're manufactured. European armies remain undermanned and under-equipped. If Europe cannot provide sufficient military support to Ukraine during active war, how can they credibly guarantee more during an immediate Russian offensive? Europe is not ready mentally or physically to go to war with Russia at the moment.
The Americans have announced they will not fight directly—only coordinate responses. Trump has been very cagey about how America would help if Ukraine were attacked, and it is safe to assume they will do nothing. This removes the one military force with current capability to stop Putin immediately.
Putin's Real Timeline Constraint
Putin faces a devastating time asymmetry. Ukraine can build Iran-level ballistic missile and drone capabilities within two years of peace. Meanwhile, Russia would need a full decade to build comprehensive air defenses for its cities like Israel's Iron Dome.
Two years of peace means Ukraine develops the capability to devastate Russian cities daily while Russia remains defensively helpless.
Why Putin Will Attack Immediately
Even if offered everything he wants—all of Donbas, Crimea—Putin will resume attacking immediately after signing any agreement. He knows this represents his optimal strategic moment: Europe depleted, America non-combatant, Ukraine still building capabilities.
The Imperial Project Requires Everything
Putin's goal is not just territory—it is eliminating Ukraine as an independent state.
The day after the end of this war will be the first day of the next.